The Gulf states' concerns about the potential end of the Iran war under President Trump's leadership are deeply rooted in their strategic interests and security concerns. The region's leaders, particularly UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, are wary of any concessions that might leave Iran's military capabilities and regional influence intact. This fear is not unfounded, given Iran's history of regional aggression and its ability to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil exports.
The Gulf states view the current conflict as a strategic opportunity to weaken Iran's power projection across the region. They believe that ending the war without securing meaningful constraints on Iran's military capabilities and regional activities would be a strategic mistake. This perspective is shared by Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, who emphasizes the need for guarantees against renewed attacks and compensation for the loss of life and damage to critical infrastructure.
The Strait of Hormuz is a particular point of concern. With approximately one-fifth of global oil exports passing through it, any disruption to maritime traffic could have severe economic consequences. Gulf officials fear that Trump might accept an end to hostilities without ensuring full freedom of navigation, which could leave Iran in a position to resume its pattern of coercion. This fear was reinforced by a White House briefing, where press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the administration's objectives include the destruction of Iran's navy, the elimination of ballistic missiles, and the dismantling of defense-industrial infrastructure. However, she did not explicitly state that restoring full freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was a core goal, which has deepened the Gulf states' concerns.
The Gulf states' pressure on Trump to secure a tougher endgame on Iran is growing. They are concerned about the potential for Iran to continue its regional aggression and disrupt maritime traffic even after the war ends. The UAE and Saudi Arabia's leadership circles increasingly share the view that the situation must conclude with curbing Iran's nuclear threat, drones, missiles, and aggression in the Strait of Hormuz. This perspective highlights the strategic importance of ensuring a comprehensive and effective resolution to the Iran conflict, one that addresses the region's security and economic interests.
